27 Jul UK real estate markets will still appeal to global investors post Brexit
Article in PropertyWire 26 July Weekly 2016 (reproduced with permission of PropertyWire Weekly)
Fluctuations in the real estate market caused by the UK’s vote to leave the European Union are likely to be shorter lived and less severe than many investors fear, according to a new analysis.
The correction in real estate pricing is expected to be largely restricted to the next 18 months, and medium term capital inflows into real estate will only be interrupted, not reversed, according to the LaSalle Investment Management’s mid-year Investment Strategy report.
It also suggests that, given the ultra-low interest rate and bond yield environment, UK real estate yields are only expected to increase by 40 to 50 basis points by the end of 2017, even if the country’s political landscape remains unclear.
Meanwhile in Continental European, investors will continue to edge up the risk curve as long as the economic recovery continues largely unaffected, but will have one eye on risk contagion from the UK.
Overall, the report suggests that some of the fears currently surrounding the real estate market in the country may be overdone. It states that the overall impact of Brexit on the Private Rented Sector (PRS) should be limited given the ongoing undersupply.
The analysis also says that real estate assets with long, index linked leases are likely to outperform over the next few years and the predicted capital market re-pricing will lead to an opportune time to enter the UK market particularly for US dollar denominated and Japanese yen denominated investors
Elsewhere in Europe, the headwinds facing London’s financial markets should help support the real estate market in cities such as Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin, and to a lesser extent Amsterdam and Madrid.
The analysis report points out that even before the impact of Brexit, office demand across Europe was undergoing a strong renaissance in cities with strong trends in demographics, technology and urbanisation.
Globally, the report says the lower for longer situation actually boosts core real estate returns in the short-run, even as it dampens the long run outlook for rental income growth. As a result, real estate values for stabilized assets in major markets outside the UK may continue to increase or hold steady, but the cyclical recovery in fundamentals will be moving much more slowly now.
At the same time, cross-border and domestic capital sources in many countries could narrow their range of target investments to focus on these traditional, core themes.
‘Across the globe, the fundamentals of supply and demand appear to be well-balanced going into the second half of the year in most of LaSalle’s major markets,’ said Jacques Gordon, Global head of research and strategy at LaSalle.
‘Furthermore, turmoil in capital markets might also open higher yielding buying opportunities from distressed sellers as the implications of the Brexit vote in the UK ripple around the world,’ he explained.
‘Although the UK has been the epi-centre for political and financial tremors since June 24, the law of unintended consequences suggests that investors should also closely watch for ripple effects in the EU, North America and even all the way to Asia-Pacific,’ he added.
According to Mahdi Mokrane, head of research and strategy for Europe at LaSalle, the forecast correction will not be long lived as the UK, and in particular a dynamic London, home to one of the world’s most liquid, transparent, and investor friendly real estate markets, is likely to reinvent itself outside of the EU.
‘The overall prospects for the UK outside the EU could well be broadly more positive than what is implied by current market commentators. We expect the forecast correction in real estate pricing to be largely restricted to 2016/2017 and medium term capital inflows into real estate will only be interrupted rather than reversed,’ Mokrane added.